The Rapid Rise of Solar Adoption in South Africa ☀️

South Africa has witnessed an extraordinary surge in solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption, transforming how households, businesses, and communities approach energy consumption. This shift, accelerated by years of load shedding—Eskom's managed power outages to prevent total grid collapse—has positioned the country as Africa's leader in new solar capacity additions. In 2025 alone, South Africa installed 1.6 gigawatts (GW) of new solar PV, accounting for a significant portion of the continent's 4.5 GW growth, marking a 54% year-on-year increase. What began as a survival strategy amid electricity shortages has evolved into a pursuit of cost savings and long-term energy security.

Recent surveys highlight that 93% of homeowners and 79% of businesses with solar systems report measurable reductions in electricity bills, even as load shedding eases in 2026. This momentum persists due to rising tariffs from Eskom, averaging 4.5 to 6.5 kilowatt-hours per square meter (kWh/m²) of solar radiation daily across much of the country, making solar economically viable. Distributed solar, including rooftop installations, now represents about 44% of deployments, underscoring a decentralized energy revolution.

Drivers Behind Off-Grid Practices and Energy Independence

Load shedding, which peaked at over 200 days in 2022 with 8.1 million megawatt-hours (MWh) curtailed, exposed the vulnerabilities of South Africa's coal-dependent grid, where renewables hold just a fraction despite abundant solar potential. Businesses faced productivity losses, while households endured daily disruptions. This crisis spurred off-grid practices, where users supplement or fully replace grid power with solar panels, batteries, inverters, and sometimes generators.

Energy independence, defined as self-sufficiency from the national grid through renewable sources, appeals to those seeking reliability. High-income households invest in full solar home systems, while others adopt hybrid setups. Government incentives, like waived registration fees for small-scale embedded generation and free smart meters, have further propelled this trend, aligning with national goals for a just energy transition.

University-Led Research Illuminating Solar Trends

South African and international universities are at the forefront of studying these shifts. Stellenbosch University's Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies (CRSES) conducts pivotal work on integrating renewables into the grid, exploring solar's role in sustainable development. Similarly, institutions like the University of Pretoria (UP) and University of Johannesburg (UJ) examine barriers to adoption, including financial constraints and infrastructure gaps.

A landmark contribution comes from the University of Cambridge, where researchers analyzed urban energy transitions. Their work provides frameworks for understanding off-grid dynamics, drawing from stakeholder interviews and field observations. These academic efforts not only quantify adoption but also unpack socio-economic implications, informing policy and fostering careers in renewable energy research.

For those interested in this field, explore research jobs or higher ed career advice on renewable technologies.

The Off-Gridding Framework: Insights from Recent Studies

Joanna Jasmine Watterson's December 2025 paper in Geoforum, titled "Towards a framework of ‘off-gridding’: Conceptualising the practices and processes of urban energy transitions in South Africa," introduces a continuum model of off-gridding. This framework categorizes practices along material, organizational, and social dimensions, revealing how end-user behaviors intersect with state policies amid apartheid legacies and electricity crises.Read the full study.

The model highlights relational processes: from user-driven adaptations "from below" to state-enabled reforms "from above." It demonstrates how off-gridding redefines citizenship, as public grid access—once a post-apartheid right—fragments into privatized solutions.

Three Core Forms of Off-Gridding

The framework delineates three interconnected forms:

• Secession: Rare (about 1% of households), primarily high-income users fully detach using large solar PV arrays and battery storage. Driven by grid distrust, this mirrors state "secession" from equitable service models.
• Marginalization: Affects 4-5.5% of low-income households in townships or informal settlements, excluded by cost, connection barriers, or unreliability. They rely on precarious fuels like paraffin or firewood.
• Supplementation: Most prevalent, blending grid power with alternatives like rooftop solar, inverters, or mini-grids across income levels. This hybrid approach dominates solar adoption.

These forms illustrate a spectrum, with solar central to supplementation and secession, promoting energy independence but varying by socio-economic status.

Case Studies: Urban Realities in Cape Town and Johannesburg

Fieldwork in diverse neighborhoods reveals stark contrasts. In Johannesburg's Diepsloot informal settlement, 74.2% of residents express interest in solar mini-grids, already spending on alternatives. Cape Town's Qandu Qandu project demonstrates viability, reducing paraffin use and illegal connections via shared solar infrastructure.Explore mini-grid case studies.

High-income areas showcase secession: affluent homes with 10-20 kW solar systems and lithium batteries achieve full independence. Middle-income supplementation involves 5-10 kW setups, yielding 30-50% bill savings. These examples underscore solar's adaptability, from rural off-grid communities to urban fringes.

Challenges: Inequality and Grid Stability Risks

While solar adoption surges—imports hit 18.2 GW continent-wide in 2025 per Global Solar Council—challenges persist.View the GSC report. Wealthy secession erodes cross-subsidies for low-income users, deepening divides. Marginalized groups face hazardous fuels, health risks, and exclusion from incentives like tax rebates.

• Financial barriers: Upfront costs deter 40-50% of potential adopters.
• Regulatory hurdles: Mini-grids struggle with licensing and tariffs.
• Waste management: Projected 12,000 tons of off-grid solar waste in sub-Saharan Africa by recent studies.
• Grid impact: Rapid rooftop solar strains aging infrastructure without smart integration.

Solar Mini-Grids: Bridging the Equity Gap

Solar mini-grids—localized networks of PV panels, batteries, and distribution—offer inclusive solutions for informal settlements. Operating via pay-as-you-go models, they mirror existing spending patterns, with high uptake potential. University-backed pilots, funded by grants and private capital, prove technical feasibility while addressing safety.

Policy evolution, including Free Basic Alternative Energy, could scale these. Researchers advocate bankable frameworks to attract investment, ensuring just transitions where energy independence benefits all.

Future Outlook: Projections and Policy Pathways

Africa's solar could reach 33 GW by 2029 (21% CAGR), led by South Africa. Ember reports record imports signal distributed growth, with South Africa transitioning from crisis response to strategic renewables.Ember insights.

Government targets 100% renewable integration by 2050, emphasizing storage and transmission. Academic research urges inclusive policies to mitigate inequality, projecting hybrid grids as the norm.

Stakeholder Perspectives and Actionable Insights

Local governments support hybrids but restrict private mini-grids; private distributors push rooftop solar; civil society demands equity. For households: Start with 3-5 kW systems for supplementation. Businesses: Leverage incentives for commercial PV. Researchers contribute via studies like Watterson's, shaping discourse.PV Magazine coverage.

Step-by-step adoption: 1) Assess irradiance and load; 2) Size PV/battery; 3) Install certified systems; 4) Register for rebates; 5) Monitor via apps.

Photo by Marlin Clark on Unsplash

Careers in Renewable Energy Research

This burgeoning field offers opportunities for academics and professionals. South African universities seek experts in solar modeling and policy analysis. Visit higher ed research jobs, university jobs, or South Africa academic positions for roles driving energy independence. Resources like higher ed career advice and rate my professor aid career navigation.